Poll facts & stats

Question 1

On election morning 2020, FiveThirtyEight's model gave Joe Biden about what probability of winning?

Accepted Answer

89%. The forecast still missed the exact outcome in Florida, North Carolina and Maine's 2nd congressional district.

Question 2

In the 2005 UK election, a same-day exit-poll forecast predicted a Labour majority of exactly how many seats — and nailed it?

Accepted Answer

66 seats. That level of precision from a same-day forecast is unusual and is still cited as a benchmark of good exit polling.

Question 3

In the 2007 Australian election, a forecast exit poll nailed the two-party-preferred result at almost exactly what number?

Accepted Answer

53%. Exit-poll forecasts can be remarkably close when turnout and voter behavior match expectations.

Question 4

For the 2020 US election, Edison Research based its exit-poll forecast on in-person interviews at how many polling locations?

Accepted Answer

115 polling locations (7,774 voters). Forecasters combine relatively small, carefully chosen samples with statistical models to project full results.

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