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How well do you know election forecasting?

Guess the real numbers behind election forecasting, see how everyone else guessed, and get the source.

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For the 2020 US election, Edison Research based its exit-poll forecast on in-person interviews at how many polling locations?

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People voting indoors on election day, making decisions at a polling station.
Photo: Edmond Dantès / Pexels
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89%

On election morning 2020, FiveThirtyEight's model gave Joe Biden about what probability of winning?

The forecast still missed the exact outcome in Florida, North Carolina and Maine's 2nd congressional district.

Source: Wikipedia: Nate Silver (2020) en.wikipedia.org

66 seats

In the 2005 UK election, a same-day exit-poll forecast predicted a Labour majority of exactly how many seats — and nailed it?

That level of precision from a same-day forecast is unusual and is still cited as a benchmark of good exit polling.

Source: Wikipedia: Exit poll (2005) en.wikipedia.org

53%

In the 2007 Australian election, a forecast exit poll nailed the two-party-preferred result at almost exactly what number?

Exit-poll forecasts can be remarkably close when turnout and voter behavior match expectations.

Source: Wikipedia: Exit poll (2007) en.wikipedia.org

What people think about election forecasting and predicting poll results

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Which is more useful to you: a single predicted winner, or a probability like '70% chance'?

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How does PollCasting.com work?

Each question asks you to guess a real number about election forecasting and predicting poll results. After you answer you see how everyone else guessed, then the real figure and where it comes from.

How is the daily round scored?

Four stats and one opinion poll. A correct guess earns 100 points plus up to 50 for speed, with a combo bonus for answers in a row. The range next to the right answer earns 40. Opinion polls earn 25 for having your say, and nailing every stat adds 150.

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Every stat links to its source, such as government statistics agencies, research organizations and industry groups. Figures are checked against the source before they go live.

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