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Do you follow election forecasts/models during campaigns?

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<script src="https://pollcasting.com/embed.js" data-poll="0" async></script>

iframe (if scripts aren't allowed)

<iframe src="https://pollcasting.com/embed?poll=0" title="Do you follow election forecasts/models during campaigns?" loading="lazy" style="border:0;width:100%;max-width:560px;height:360px"></iframe>

Newsletter (email-safe HTML)

<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;max-width:560px;border:1px solid #e4e7ec;border-radius:14px;border-collapse:separate"><tr><td style="padding:18px">
<p style="margin:0 0 6px;font:bold 12px Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:1px;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4f46e5">Forecasting poll</p>
<p style="margin:0 0 14px;font:bold 18px/1.35 Arial,sans-serif;color:#0e1116">Do you follow election forecasts/models during campaigns?</p>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%"><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=0&amp;c=0&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Closely</a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=0&amp;c=1&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">A little</a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=0&amp;c=2&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Not really</a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=0&amp;c=3&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Never</a></td></tr></table>
<p style="margin:8px 0 0;font:12px Arial,sans-serif;color:#6b7380">Tap an answer to vote and see the live results · Poll by <a href="https://pollcasting.com/?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="color:#4f46e5">PollCasting.com</a></p>
</td></tr></table>

Which is more useful to you: a single predicted winner, or a probability like '70% chance'?

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<script src="https://pollcasting.com/embed.js" data-poll="1" async></script>

iframe (if scripts aren't allowed)

<iframe src="https://pollcasting.com/embed?poll=1" title="Which is more useful to you: a single predicted winner, or a probability like '70% chance'?" loading="lazy" style="border:0;width:100%;max-width:560px;height:360px"></iframe>

Newsletter (email-safe HTML)

<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;max-width:560px;border:1px solid #e4e7ec;border-radius:14px;border-collapse:separate"><tr><td style="padding:18px">
<p style="margin:0 0 6px;font:bold 12px Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:1px;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4f46e5">Forecasting poll</p>
<p style="margin:0 0 14px;font:bold 18px/1.35 Arial,sans-serif;color:#0e1116">Which is more useful to you: a single predicted winner, or a probability like &#39;70% chance&#39;?</p>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%"><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=1&amp;c=0&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">A clear predicted winner</a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=1&amp;c=1&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">A percentage probability</a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=1&amp;c=2&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Both together</a></td></tr></table>
<p style="margin:8px 0 0;font:12px Arial,sans-serif;color:#6b7380">Tap an answer to vote and see the live results · Poll by <a href="https://pollcasting.com/?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="color:#4f46e5">PollCasting.com</a></p>
</td></tr></table>

When a forecast is wrong, what do you think is the bigger problem?

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<script src="https://pollcasting.com/embed.js" data-poll="2" async></script>

iframe (if scripts aren't allowed)

<iframe src="https://pollcasting.com/embed?poll=2" title="When a forecast is wrong, what do you think is the bigger problem?" loading="lazy" style="border:0;width:100%;max-width:560px;height:360px"></iframe>

Newsletter (email-safe HTML)

<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;max-width:560px;border:1px solid #e4e7ec;border-radius:14px;border-collapse:separate"><tr><td style="padding:18px">
<p style="margin:0 0 6px;font:bold 12px Arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:1px;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4f46e5">Forecasting poll</p>
<p style="margin:0 0 14px;font:bold 18px/1.35 Arial,sans-serif;color:#0e1116">When a forecast is wrong, what do you think is the bigger problem?</p>
<table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%"><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=2&amp;c=0&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Bad polling data</a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=2&amp;c=1&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">A flawed model</a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=2&amp;c=2&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Just bad luck/close race</a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 0 8px 0"><a href="https://pollcasting.com/vote?poll=2&amp;c=3&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="display:block;padding:12px 16px;border:1.5px solid #d3d8df;border-radius:10px;color:#0e1116;text-decoration:none;font:15px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Voters changing their minds late</a></td></tr></table>
<p style="margin:8px 0 0;font:12px Arial,sans-serif;color:#6b7380">Tap an answer to vote and see the live results · Poll by <a href="https://pollcasting.com/?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email_snippet" style="color:#4f46e5">PollCasting.com</a></p>
</td></tr></table>

Stat cards

A question your readers guess before they reveal the sourced answer.

On election morning 2020, FiveThirtyEight's model gave Joe Biden about what probability of winning?

<script src="https://pollcasting.com/embed.js" data-fact="0" async></script>

In the 2007 Australian election, a forecast exit poll nailed the two-party-preferred result at almost exactly what number?

<script src="https://pollcasting.com/embed.js" data-fact="1" async></script>

Ahead of the 2012 US election, Gallup's final forecast predicted Romney 49%, Obama 48%. Which candidate actually won, and by how much?

<script src="https://pollcasting.com/embed.js" data-fact="2" async></script>

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